Sufyan Lawal Kabo (Sefjamil)
Since 2023, Peter Obi’s greatest political strength was his ability to attract support far beyond the South East. Many Nigerians from the North, South West, South South, and other regions saw him as a national candidate rather than an ethnic or regional figure. However, his repeated comments on Nnamdi Kanu and IPOB, especially in recent interviews, have totally changed that perception.
In national politics, perception often matters more than intention. Whether he personally supports IPOB or not, every time he appears to soften the conversation around Kanu, many Nigerians interpret it as sympathy for a movement associated with separatist agitation, sit at home orders, insecurity, economic losses, intimidation, and suffering experienced by ordinary Nigerians of all ethnic groups living in the South East. As a result, a growing number of voters outside his core base are beginning to question where he truly stands.
I am under the impression that either Obi does not have a capable media adviser providing him with sound political guidance, or he mistakenly believes that the support of one regional bloc, the Obedients, and a few Kwankwasiyya loyalists is sufficient to win a nationwide election.
The reality of Nigerian presidential elections is that they are won through broad national coalitions, not regional popularity alone. The North contributes huge voter numbers and turnout, the South West provides powerful political structures, alliances, and electoral machinery, while other regions contribute strategic support needed to achieve constitutional spread. The South East may be passionate in its support, but passion alone cannot produce a presidential victory.
This is why I believe Obi’s repeated return to the Kanu and IPOB issue is politically counterproductive. The South East is already largely supportive of him, so the challenge has never been how to gain more support there.
The challenge has always been convincing undecided voters in other regions. Many non Igbo voters who supported him in 2023 did so because they saw him as a unifying national figure. Today, most of those same voters in the North and South West have become uncomfortable with Obi’s increasing alignment with ethnic and IPOB related narratives, a perception reinforced by his recent public statements.
Every time Obi revisits the Kanu issue, compares it with other regional agitations, or adopts language that resembles arguments commonly made by IPOB supporters, he risks narrowing the coalition he needs to grow. If this trend continues into 2027, the greatest damage to his campaign will not come from opponents but from strategic choices that create doubts among voters he still needs to persuade.
Obi will eventually learn why pandering to IPOB supporters is a bad political play. The rest of us may witness that lesson unfold at the ballot box.
Sufyan writes from Abuja