By Sufyan Lawal Kabo (Sefjamil)
Politics is not won merely by having certain supporters. It is won by persuading those who remain unconvinced. Throughout history, successful presidential candidates have understood a simple principle: elections are won by expanding coalitions, not by reinforcing existing ones.
This may be Peter Obi’s greatest political challenge as 2027 approaches.
Peter Obi’s recent interview with Oseni Rufai is just another strategic blunder. While Nigerians are worried about insecurity, inflation, and economic hardship, Obi once again finds himself discussing Nnamdi Kanu and related issues, uttering worse things. If I were him, I would begin dodging any interview questions about IPOB and Namandi Kanu.
Obi should know that the South East is already largely in his camp, so repeatedly returning to the subject of IPOB and Nnamdi Kanu to gain applause from his Igbos brethren will not augur well for him in this context. Instead, it risks reinforcing the perception among undecided voters in the North and South West that he is too closely associated with a regional narrative and of course a terrorist group like IPOB and its leader Nnamdi Kanu.
While Obi remains highly popular among many voters in the South East and among sections of urban youth across the country, his biggest obstacle is not enthusiasm within his base. It is trust outside it. Majority of people in the Southwest have no slight trust for Peter Obi, believing he and his kinsmen have an Igbo agenda – to retaliate on the pain of Biafra experience eg killing of millions Igbos during the war, domination of the Southwest (especially Lagos) agenda, their alleged plan to use Nigerian resources to build South east in preparedness to secede while they destabilize other regions etc.
On the other hand, most Northerners, since after the murder of Sardauna, Tafawa Ɓalewa and other northern leaders by the Igbos, believed that Igbos are never to be trusted again. Many also believed that the one term claim by Peter Obi was only a deceit to pave him a way to gain access to the presidential seat in order to unleash the hidden Igbo agenda against the North and Nigeria at large.
Kano first
Among many voters in parts of Northern Nigeria and the South West, the question is not whether Obi is intelligent, articulate, or competent. The fear is he cannot be trusted to govern as a true national leader because he has demonstrated to be a champion of a particular regional sentiment. Many Northern and Northwest voters also continue to view Obi through the lens of the 2023 election, during which sections of his support base were of promoting ethnic and regional and religious narratives: any statement that appears sympathetic to Nnamdi Kanu or IPOB risks reinforcing fears that Obi is in full support of Biafra sessation himself.
History offers many examples. In the United States, political analysts have often argued that parties lose elections when they become overly focused on energising their strongest supporters while neglecting swing voters. In the United Kingdom, Labour spent years struggling electorally because many voters viewed it as speaking more to activists than to the broader electorate. Successful political movements grow by expanding their appeal, not by narrowing it.
A voter in Kano, Ibadan, Sokoto, Kaduna, or Abeokuta may not judge Obi by his intentions. He may judge him by the narratives that have developed around him. Fair or unfair, many voters ask questions such as: Will he govern for all regions equally? Will he maintain national balance? Will he build broad consensus? Will he place national unity above regional pressures?
These questions are not necessarily evidence of reality. They are evidence of perception. And in politics, perception can be as powerful as reality itself.
The fundamental lesson of presidential politics is simple. No candidate wins a diverse country by speaking only to those who already agree with him as Peter Obi is busy doing. Victory comes from convincing those who remain uncertain, and he doesn’t seem to understand this.
Real challenge facing Peter Obi is not winning over the South East. It is building sufficient trust in the North, the South West, and other regions that still have doubts about him.
In politics, enthusiasm is important, but trust is decisive. And the candidate who builds the broadest trust across the widest coalition is usually the one who wins.