By Nworisa Michael
Many Nigerians genuinely desire political change in 2027.
Across different regions, there is visible frustration over the current economic hardship, insecurity, and general direction of the country under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
But one painful truth many opposition supporters may not want to admit is this: a divided opposition may once again become Tinubu’s greatest political advantage.
Looking carefully at recent developments, it is becoming increasingly difficult not to see Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s political moves as indirectly benefiting President Tinubu more than strengthening a united opposition.
Peter Obi spent months within the ADC political arrangement and coalition conversations. Yet, barely weeks after Kwankwaso’s entry into the equation, Obi moved out alongside him.
Naturally, many people now believe both men are building a joint force capable of defeating Tinubu by simply merging their 2023 numbers mathematically.
On paper, the calculation looks attractive.
But politics is not solved by mathematics alone.
Votes are not bags of cement that can simply be added together and transferred automatically from one politician to another.
Political loyalty, regional sentiments, elite interests, party structures, trust, and national perception all influence electoral outcomes differently.
The biggest danger now is that opposition figures who should be building a broad united front are instead replaying the same fragmentation that weakened their chances in 2023.
Ironically, the more divided the opposition becomes, the more comfortable the ruling party grows.
Another important observation is this: Sen. Kwankwaso appears to understand that his political influence remains strongest in Kano and parts of the North-West. To expand beyond that traditional base, aligning with Peter Obi gives him access to Obi’s passionate national support base, particularly in the South-East and among many urban youths across the country.
In simple terms, Obi offers nationwide emotional energy and popularity, while Kwankwaso seeks broader national penetration beyond his established northern base.
But the real question Nigerians should ask is this:
Is this alliance being built primarily to genuinely unite the opposition and rescue Nigeria politically, or is it another elite political arrangement driven by personal ambitions, calculations, and bargaining power ahead of 2027?
Because if opposition leaders truly understand the urgency of Nigeria’s current challenges, then personal pride, ego battles, and political territorialism should not be stronger than the national interest.
Many Nigerians are tired. Many genuinely want change. But history has shown repeatedly that a house divided against itself can hardly defeat a sitting government with all the advantages of incumbency.
And if the opposition continues on this path of fragmentation, suspicion, and parallel ambitions, then regardless of public anger against the current administration, President Tinubu may once again emerge as the indirect beneficiary of opposition disunity.